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Hypothesis Best Practice

A Campaign or Experiment Hypothesis is a brief statement that describes what you believe your Campaign accomplishes. This describes the results you expect when you run this test. 

SiteSpect recommends saving these in your Experiment Roadmap or Backlog against each campaign concept. You may also find it useful to save this within the SiteSpect UI in the Campaign Description field to provide further context to future visitors to the page.

At first glance it may seem obvious how to create Experiment Hypothesis quickly and simply. But there are  some pitfalls to watch out for.  

For example, "I believe changing CTA buttons green will increase conversion" seems straightforward enough but it lacks additonal variables that will help to best determine 1) if the campaign is worth proceeding with in the first place, 2) if it has been successful and 3) at what point should the campaign be concluded.

By modifying this to a template similar to the below you can include additonal validation and guard rails. This will ensure you only proceed with worthy campaign concepts that have some backing in data/observations, how you intend to judge success and at what point to make that decision.

"Because we see (data point A), we believe that changing (element B) we result in an (increase/decrease) in (data point C) and we will meausre this using (metric D)."

It is possible to take this further and include a parameter for run time. e.g.

"Because we see (data point A), we believe that changing (element B) we result in a (increase/decrease) in (data point C), we will meausre this using (metric D) and based on current data the campaign should conclude within (days E)."

For this last parameter you can calcuate the potential run time using a calculator for Pre-Test Analysis to determine the Minimal detectible effect (MDE) required for a specific number of days/weeks.

One final area of conseration in the above Hypothesis template is the importance of selecting an realistic/appropriate Primary Metric or KPI for the statement.